The Altagamma Consensus 2026 report, jointly authored by the Italian luxury goods association Altagamma and 19 seasoned luxury industry experts, presents a forecast for the global luxury industry in 2026.
The report anticipates that the global luxury market will grow by approximately 5% in 2026, aligning with the long-term projected growth range of 4%–6%.
It highlights that, driven by cost optimization initiatives and strong performance in the Americas, Europe, and the Middle East, the global luxury market is expected to stabilize by 2026. EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) is forecasted to increase by 5% year-over-year. The recovery of consumer confidence in China could be a positive turning point, though the depreciation of the US dollar may negatively impact exports.
Altagamma Chairman Matteo Lunelli stated, “In 2025, the global luxury market size remains stable at €1.44 trillion, but the environment remains complex — consumers are more cautious in their purchases, and Chinese consumer demand is underwhelming. Experiential consumption, especially in longevity and wellness-related sectors, continues to grow, while aspirational consumer demand is weakening. Brands need to pay close attention to pricing dynamics while also navigating challenges such as tariffs, a weakening US dollar, and high energy prices. The market is expected to achieve 5% organic growth in 2026.”
Chinese Market Has Passed the “Crisis Peak,” Middle East Remains a Key Reference Market
By region, the market shows notable divergence:
— China: The market has passed its “crisis peak,” and luxury consumption is expected to grow moderately by 4% in 2026. Due to cautious consumer sentiment and the ongoing real estate crisis, the phenomenon of “Luxury Shame” persists, pushing consumers toward experiential consumption. However, the number of high-net-worth individuals is on the rise, and Chinese consumer spending is expected to increase by 3.5%, with continued expansion in domestic consumption.
— Other parts of Asia: Overall growth is projected at 4%, with dynamic performance. South Korea is leading the growth, followed by steady momentum in Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore. India, considered a “long-term potential market” for luxury, is expected to grow by 7%, supported by improving distribution channels, though the market size remains limited.
— Japan: Growth in 2025 will be hindered by unfavorable exchange rates affecting the market and tourism. In 2026, growth is projected at 2.5%, with yen depreciation potentially attracting new waves of tourists.
— North America: Remains a top-priority market, with the stock market bolstering consumer confidence and a growing number of high-net-worth individuals. The overall market is expected to grow by 4.5%, with consumer spending rising by 5.5%. Despite a weaker dollar, the expanding consumer base and rebound in tourism demand are expected to drive spending in hospitality and overseas travel.
— Europe: The market remains resilient, with expected growth of 3.5%. Growth is limited primarily due to market maturity and political-economic challenges in France and Germany. Spain stands out, benefiting from lower energy costs and effective immigration management. Nonetheless, uncertainties stemming from geopolitical conflicts and insufficient tourist flow from Asia continue to pressure the market. European consumer activity is expected to strengthen further in 2026.
— Latin America: Projected to grow by 4.5%, driven by the emergence of a new high-end consumer elite. Despite high tariffs on imported goods, local consumers continue to seek luxury through domestic supply. Brazil and Mexico are expected to see industry recovery in 2026, with local currency appreciation boosting domestic consumption.
— Middle East: Will remain a core reference market in 2026, with projected growth of 6%. Following Dubai, Abu Dhabi is experiencing rapid development and has been identified as “the next key player in the region” (with a 46% increase in tourists in 2025 and a high concentration of high-net-worth individuals). Saudi Arabia is also growing rapidly thanks to large-scale real estate investments.
— Other regions: Expected growth of 4.5%.
Chinese Consumers Shift to “Experiential Consumption,” High-Net-Worth Individuals Are the Core Growth Driver
From the perspective of consumer demographics:
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High-net-worth individuals are the main growth engine, especially in North America and the Middle East.
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European consumers show strong resilience and place greater emphasis on perceived value.
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Chinese consumers are shifting from “product consumption” to “experiential consumption,” with rising willingness to spend domestically.
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Emerging markets such as Latin America and India are witnessing rapid expansion of high-end consumer groups, unleashing demand potential.
Brick-and-Mortar Retail Remains Dominant, with Increasing Digital Integration
— Brick-and-mortar retail: Remains the primary channel for personal luxury purchases, showing significant growth and working in synergy with digital retail. In 2026, it is projected to grow by 5%, with a focus on expansion into new areas such as second-tier cities in North America, the Middle East, and Latin America. With advantages such as personalized services, exclusive solutions for high-end consumers, brand showrooms, exclusive sales formats, and in-store experiences (such as cafés and restaurants), physical retail remains a strategic channel for the luxury sector.
— Digital retail: Expected to grow by 4.5%, with increasing integration with physical retail and continued optimization of the shopping experience.
— Wholesale channels: Losing influence. Digital wholesale is projected to grow by 1%, and physical wholesale by 2%. Department stores (both online and offline) continue to face crises. Although dynamics vary by channel, no significant growth is expected.
— Multi-brand physical stores: Continue to attract consumers and offer significant potential value for brands, especially emerging ones. In North America, they remain a strategic choice for some brands — high-end consumers are seeking immersive experiences, prompting brands to develop new interactive formats with a preference for offline and bespoke service models.
— Discount channels (online + offline): Performing strongly. Benefitting from the clearance of unsold products from previous seasons, high-end discount channels are delivering outstanding results. In contrast, digital wholesale channels are struggling due to challenges in offering products that maintain consumer loyalty.
Jewelry Becomes a “Safe-Haven Asset” as Category Polarization Intensifies
Sales across all luxury categories are expected to see moderate growth in 2025, with this trend solidifying further in 2026. Overall, the market is displaying a growing polarization between high-end niche segments and accessible price tiers:
— Jewelry: Continuing its positive momentum, the category is projected to grow by 5%. With gold prices doubling over the past five years, jewelry is increasingly seen as a “safe-haven asset” and a viable investment option. Branded jewelry is in rising demand, and high-end pieces are increasingly regarded as works of art, serving as expressions of identity and tradition. The global high-end jewelry market exceeds €31 billion, with Italian craftsmanship standing as a hallmark of quality and long-term value.
— Leather Goods: Forecasted to grow by 4%, showing relatively strong performance. Although impacted by a decline in Chinese travel consumption, handbags continue to attract buyers due to their investment appeal.
— Footwear: Expected to grow by 3%, with lackluster performance. Rising prices and fewer Chinese tourists are putting pressure on sales.
— Beauty: Anticipated to grow by 4%, though at a slowing pace. Demand related to longevity and wellness has become a key growth driver. Online channels continue to perform well, with a steady influx of young consumers. Niche perfumes are gaining momentum, and South Korea remains the benchmark market for skincare. Technological applications are playing an increasingly important role in the beauty sector.
— Watches: Sales are stabilizing in 2025, with a return to positive growth expected in 2026.
— Apparel: Forecasted to grow moderately by 4%, with significant divergence among brands. Aspirational consumers are leaning toward moderately priced products. Some fast fashion players are launching “premiumization strategies,” while high-end fashion houses may introduce lower-priced product lines to drive sales growth.
Industry Insights from Senior Executives Across Key Segments
Jewelry: Sabina Belli, CEO of Pomellato
“The global high-end jewelry market exceeds €31 billion and is set to maintain its recent strong performance through 2026. Amid economic volatility, jewelry represents a safe investment for consumers, which explains the popularity of branded jewelry and the growth in high-ticket sales, including online. High-end jewelry is increasingly seen as an art form and a means of expressing identity and heritage. Italian craftsmanship has always guaranteed both quality and long-term value.”
Fashion: Carlo Capasa, Chairman of the Italian National Fashion Chamber
“Italian fashion is expected to partially recover in 2026, with industry revenues stabilizing. Apparel showed positive signs in Q4 of 2025. However, three critical issues remain: first, the influx of ultra-fast fashion imports from China; second, the need to develop new industrial collaboration agreements, which industry associations, leading brands, and local partners are jointly advancing; and third, working with the government to define a 3–5 year strategic industrial plan. The success of this systemic strategy will determine the revival of both the fashion sector and the broader ‘Made in Italy’ value proposition.”
Automotive: Claudio Domenicali, CEO of Ducati
“Thanks to strong support from top-tier consumers, demand in the automotive sector (including motorcycles) remains stable. However, geopolitical instability is putting pressure on Europe’s premium car market, affecting the entire supply chain. Electric vehicles remain the industry’s central focus, with regulatory frameworks continuing to evolve. Over half of high-end consumers have purchased a luxury car in the past year, indicating robust market vitality. Future growth will largely rely on ultra-premium and customized models.”
Luxury Hospitality: Aldo Melpignano, Founder and CEO of Egnazia Hospitality Group
“In 2026, luxury hospitality will remain one of the engines of industry growth. After years of expansion, the market has reached a more mature stage. Travelers are seeking authenticity, emotional connections, and a sense of belonging. Sustainable and responsible tourism is gaining attention, offering value to local communities. Demand in the European market is stable, with domestic tourism continuing to strengthen. Although growth in the Chinese market is slowing, it is still expected to maintain a steady upward trajectory. In Italy, luxury hotels account for just 1% of all accommodation facilities, yet generate 25% of total tourism spending — a clear indication of this model’s positive and sustainable impact on regional development.”
Design: Dario Rinero, CEO of Haworth Lifestyle
“2025 remains a year of consumption adjustment, following post-pandemic growth momentum. The global high-end design market is valued at €51 billion, with Italian excellence continuing to lead. A slight growth increase is expected in 2026. North America and Saudi Arabia are emerging as high-potential markets, while the influence of traditional markets like France and Germany is declining. Commercial space design is growing rapidly, with increased focus on wellness and experiential quality. For Italian high-end design, the challenge ahead is to integrate design excellence, sustainability, and innovation.”
Yachts: Giovanna Vitelli, Chair of Azimut|Benetti Group
“The high-end yacht sector experienced significant expansion after the pandemic, a trend that continues into 2025. Barring uncertainties related to US tariffs, growth is expected to continue into 2026, though at a more moderate pace. Italy leads the global yacht industry, accounting for around half of all superyacht orders, with a supply chain valued at over €27 billion. Yacht tourism continues to grow, and a new generation of yacht owners is emerging — they are more focused on sustainability, innovation, and comfort.”
Food & Wine: Maurizio Zanella, Founder and Chairman of Ca’ del Bosco Winery
“Moderate growth expected in 2026 will be driven by the ultra-premium segment and consumers who prioritize authenticity and quality. Although the impact of tariffs has been absorbed for now, the US remains a core and stable market. Demand for fine dining is evolving toward modern formats, incorporating experiential and entertainment elements on top of culinary excellence. Italian food culture offers a distinctive regional heritage, and its high-end wines — with 20 diverse wine-producing regions — continue to elevate Italy’s regional value within the global wine market, valued at €93 billion.”
｜Source: Official press release from Altagamma
｜Image Credit: Altagamma official website
｜Editor: LeZhi
